Fear and Hope in America:
Americans’ internalized narratives leading into the Midterms
We’ve heard a collective desire to more deeply understand the atmosphere of fear we are operating in and identify strategies that move people toward actions that could make the world more fair and just.
Our insights series, “Fear and Hope in America,” is our response. Every two months, we take America’s emotional pulse by asking people about issues they discuss around their kitchen tables: their fears, their hopes, and the narratives in media and social circles that drive them.
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Since we last checked in with America, rising cost of living, inflation, and economic downturn continue to be top of mind for Americans.
While a majority of Americans are motivated to vote in the next election, 1 in 5 of those who are somewhat motivated are unsure who they would vote for.
We see opportunity to motivate these voters by driving home the key message that only Democrats care enough to keep fighting to protect the freedoms we hold most dear.
Research Goals & Design
By analyzing the responses of 6,713 Americans to a mix of open- and closed-ended questions over time, we are tracking trends in both the country’s emotional atmosphere and the narratives shaping our perceptions. This data was collected August 9-11 2022, and is representative of the American population.
Methodology
An Avalanche Listening Survey combines open and closed-ended questions. Open-ended questions provide rich data sets that allow us to analyze beliefs, values, and emotions related to an issue. Closed-ended questions provide clarity and comparability with existing research. We work with industry-leading data collection partners to gather targeted samples of respondents.
Since March, fears of worsening economy and political division have remained high. Fears of war escalation have dropped dramatically.
1 in 2
Americans cite a worse economy and higher costs as a top concern
1 in 5
Americans cite politics as their top fear
Americans want elected officials to improve their lives financially
Across vote choice, half of respondents say they want elected officials to help Americans financially. About 1 in 10 Biden voters mention they’d like to see electeds care and deliver.
[Elected Priorities] What is one thing that elected officials could do to improve your life within the next year? (Open)
When asked about their motivation to vote, more than 50% of Americans say they strongly support the candidate they plan to vote for, rather than voting against the other party.
A slight plurality of Americans say they believe Democrats are more likely to improve their lives. Yet, 1 in 5 Americans are unsure which party is likely to improve their lives, including 1 in 4 women.
How do Americans perceive each party heading into the 2022 Midterms?
In their own words, 1 in 4 Biden voters and 13% of Soft Trump voters say Democrats are fighting for our rights and freedoms.
[Fighting for - Dem] What do you think Democrats running for office are fighting for? (Open)
In their own words: What are Democrats fighting for?
Their own interests
They don't care about lower class people and only want power.
- Strong Trump, NH White, Female
They are fighting for corrupt corporations and only thinking of themselves.
- Nonvoter, Black, Male
They are fighting to give more money to the government when that's not fair. They’re not doing it for us.
- Independent, Black Hispanic, Female
Control, money, communism, notoriety.
- Strong Trump, NH White, Male
Protecting freedoms
Equality, women's rights, helping the middle class and not letting the rich get away with not paying their fair share.
- Soft Biden, White, Female
Equal rights, women’s rights, proper gun laws, inflation issues, economic issues and student loan reduction.
- Strong Biden, Black, Female
Protecting democracy; implementing programs to protect the most vulnerable in society, climate change efforts to save the planet, root out corruption in government.
- Soft Biden, Black, Female
American people
They want to change the country to do better for everyone, even if we are different.
- Strong Biden, Asian, Female
Price drop in medications, and for the people, to help with the economy.
- Soft Trump, White, Male
Freedom and equality and the good of the American people.
- Strong Biden, Hispanic, Female
Democrats are fighting for working families all across the states, for strong neighborhood schools, higher income and economy that works for everyone.
- Soft Biden, Black, Female
1 in 5 Soft Trump voters view Republicans as fighting for their own interests and power. About 1 in 10 Biden voters see them as fighting for monied interests, like big business.
[Fighting for - GOP] What do you think Republicans running for office are fighting for? (Open)
Arguments for voting for each party
We tested four messages and asked respondents to indicate which made the best arguments for voting for each party.
Both Fair + Just and the Care + Fighting For arguments performed best for Democrats.
Of Americans who are unsure which party they will vote for in November, the Fair + Just argument for Democrats is selected the most.
The Case for Democrats
Fair + Just for All
Voting in this election isn’t going to solve all of our problems, but if we are going to have any chance at making our country more fair and just for everyone — regardless of their color, background, or social class— the choice is clear: only Democrats will work toward this goal.
Care + Fighting For
Only Democrats care enough about people to keep fighting for progress on the things that really matter like safety from gun violence, lowering the cost of living, addressing climate change, and passing paid family leave.
Trump Republicans
We have a choice to make: We can allow Trump Republicans to take us backwards, or we can vote for Democrats who are actually working to create a better future for the next generation.
Reproductive Freedom
Only Democrats are working to protect our freedom to decide if and when to start a family. Voting for Democrats is the only way to stop Republicans from passing a national ban on abortion.
The Case for Republicans
Results
Voting for Republicans doesn’t mean always approving the means or method, but it means voting to get results and that’s what counts.
Defend Children
Republicans are fighting to safeguard our right to protect our communities, speak up about what our children learn in school, and defend our unborn children.
Radical Left
The Radical Left and elite media are trying to control the story of America and shove us down a path of socialism that doesn’t serve real American people.
Beat Taxes & Inflation
Republicans don’t have a majority right now, but they’ve still made huge strides to lower taxes and inflation. Think of how much more we can achieve if they win in November.
When analyzing open-ended emotional data, Avalanche categorizes emotions onto a spectrum from inhibiting to activating — a framework adapted from the Public Narrative work of organizer and Harvard Kennedy School professor Marshall Ganz
Among Biden voters, the ‘Fair + Just’ and ‘Care’ cases are more activating, evoking hope.
Soft Trump voters are most activated by the ‘Oppose Trump’ case (likely backlash).
[Dem Argument Emotion] What emotion best describes how you feel about that statement? (Open)
How to talk to voters about the midterms
ACKNOWLEDGE REAL HARDSHIP
Acknowledge that things have been difficult, that our country has been through a lot in the last few years, and that the rising costs are having a real impact. It shouldn’t have to be this hard.
FRAME THE CHOICE
And while one election cannot solve everything, we have a clear choice to make.
DRAW CONTRAST
Trump Republicans who time and again attempt to divide and distract us because they are desperate to keep their power and take us backwards, or Democrats who are fighting to make our country more fair and just for everyone — regardless of their color, gender, background, or social class.
CHANNEL DETERMINATION. LEAD WITH FREEDOM, FAIRNESS, & CARE
Only Democrats care enough to keep fighting to protect the freedoms we hold most dear — the freedom to decide our futures, the freedom to live without fear of gun violence, the freedom to breathe clean air and drink clean water, the freedom to thrive and care for our families.
Key Takeaways
1
Hopes and Fears
Rising cost of living is top of mind for Americans, particularly among Soft Biden voters and women. Half of all Americans say they hope elected officials will take action to help them financially.
While reproductive freedom energizes the base, it is not top of mind when asked in open-ended questions around fears and hopes. Americans also do not select it as the best case to vote for Democrats among four core arguments.
2
Motivation to Vote
28% of voters say they aren’t motivated to vote in the Midterms.
Of voters who are somewhat motivated, about 1 in 5 aren’t sure who they would vote for.
Soft Biden and Soft Trump voters are nearly split on whether they are voting for or against their party. There remains much room to convince Americans, particularly Soft Biden voters, that voting for Democrats will improve their lives.
3
Perceptions of Party
A slight majority of Americans say they believe Democrats are more likely to improve their lives if they win. Only 20% of Soft Biden voters feel the country or their own life will be significantly improved if Dems win.
1 in 4 Biden voters mention that Democrats are fighting for our rights and freedoms.
There is little consensus besides generic positivity and ‘change’ as to why voters think they should cast a ballot for Democrats.
4
The Best Case
When asked to choose the best reason to vote for Dems, the two hopeful cases outperform the loss/negative cases.
Soft Biden voters choose the ‘Fair + Just’ case 16 pts over the ‘Oppose Trump Republican’ case.
Both those who say they are very and somewhat motivated to vote in the Midterms also select the ‘Fair + Just’ case.
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