Fear and Hope in America: Ukraine, Inflation, & Party Narratives
We’ve heard a collective desire to more deeply understand the atmosphere of fear we are operating in and identify strategies that move people toward actions that could make the world more fair and just.
Our insights series, “Fear and Hope in America,” is our response. Every two months, we take America’s emotional pulse by asking people about issues they discuss around their kitchen tables: their fears, their hopes, and the narratives in media and social circles that drive them.
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A lot has changed since this insights series launched in October. While the war in Ukraine is a new fear among Americans, inflation continues to be top of mind. Efforts by both Republicans and Democrats to shape the narrative do not resonate equally among Americans, but Democrats alone inspire hope.
Research Goals & Design
By analyzing the responses of 6,000 Americans to a mix of open- and closed-ended questions over time, we are tracking trends in both the country’s emotional atmosphere and the narratives shaping our perceptions. This data was collected Mar 11-14 2022, and is representative of the American population.
Methodology
An Avalanche Listening Survey combines open and closed-ended questions. Open-ended questions provide rich data sets that allow us to analyze beliefs, values, and emotions related to an issue. Closed-ended questions provide clarity and comparability with existing research. We work with industry-leading data collection partners to gather targeted samples of respondents.
Economic fears, including references to rising costs and inflation continue to dominate as the number one concern among American.
War escalation, a new theme, ranks second.
8 in 10
Americans are “very concerned” about rising costs
1 in 5
Americans report war escalation as their top fear
When asked what costs specifically they were most concerned about, a majority of Americans noted the cost of gas and food.
51%
specifically mention being concerned about the cost of gas prices
45%
specifically mention being concerned about the cost of food
Rising costs & Inflation
“The cost of food prices, gas is hurting those of us who now live paycheck to paycheck and our income would worsen as the months go by.”
- Biden voter, Latina, Woman
”More people be homeless, more children and senior citizens going hungry. Plus more people out of work because they can't afford to put gas in their vehicle to go to work.”
-Trump voter, White, Woman
”If prices don't start going down and gas get under deal I'm not sure even with raises and work deals that people will be able to afford the gas to go to work. I can see deep spread recession if something doesn't improve quickly.”
- Trump voter, Latina, Woman
War escalation
“I fear there will be a war that the US will get involved in and it will cause another Great Depression and we will be in…constant fear for our own safety and survival.”
-Trump voter, Latina, Woman
“Putin bombing us because he's a madman that has never been diplomatic.”
-Biden voter, Latina, Woman
“I fear the war in the Ukraine will make pollution worse and speed up climate change.”
- Trump voter, White, Woman
“I fear that America increases military recruitment for a war, which will decimate the economy and the future for many young Americans.”
-Nonvoter, Native American, Man
Who to blame for rising costs?
When asked to describe who, if anyone, they believe is responsible for rising costs / inflation, Biden voters are divided (Putin, corporate greed, or the government), while Trump voters overwhelmingly blame Biden.
Nearly 1 in 2 Americans mentions a negative perception of Biden’s leadership on Ukraine.
Only 1 in 4 mentions a positive perception.
[Biden’s Ukraine leadership] In one word, how would you describe President Biden’s leadership on the crisis in Ukraine? (Open)
How are Americans responding to each party’s narratives about Ukraine and Inflation?
We showed half of the respondents Gov. Kim Reynolds’ response to the State of the Union and half of the respondents White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki’s “Putin’s Gas Price Hike” to understand which message is resonating with which audiences — and why.
A majority of respondents agrees with either message, but the Reynolds message performed meaningfully better (59% agreed with Reynolds, 55% agreed with Psaki). 65% of Americans found the Reynolds message somewhat or very convincing.
Key takeaways from Reynolds’ message
Viewers of Reynolds’ message identify “Biden’s failure” and contribution to rising costs as the clear, important takeaway.
Key takeaways from Psaki’s message
Viewers of Psaki’s message identify the call for long-term energy independence the most important part. Parts blaming Putin and oil companies have lower salience.
The top emotional reactions for Gov. Kim Reynolds were anxiety, sadness, and fear (for those who agree). The top emotional reactions for White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki were hope (for those who agree) and anger (for those who disagree).
Clear majorities of Americans say four economic policies outlined in Biden’s State of the Union would make a positive difference in their lives.
63%
Manufacture more goods in America, including cars and semiconductors
59%
Cap the costs of prescription drugs
60%
Crack down on corporate monopolies that are overcharging consumers
58%
Cut energy costs and combat climate change by helping people make their homes and cars more energy-efficient
Fewer than 4 in 10 Biden voters say the economic policies outlined in the State of the Union address their cost concerns “very well.”
[Policies addressing concerns] Thinking about the policies above as a whole, how well do the policies address your concerns about rising costs in America? (Closed)
Americans specifically noted that they are are most concerned about the cost of gas and food. The policies outlined in the State of the Union don't clearly relate to how you would address gas and food prices in the immediate term.
Our next round of research will include testing on how to potentially reframe the “Rising Costs of Living” story.
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Key Takeaways
1
Fears about inflation and war in Ukraine dominate the US emotional landscape — across partisan lines.
2
GOP's villain in the inflation story is clear, while Democrats' is less clear.
3
Democrats alone inspire hope for an energy- independent future.
4
Voters say SOTU proposals to combat inflation will help, but crave relief from more widely-felt, rising daily costs, like gas and food.
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