Mobilizing youth voters ahead of the midterms
Youth voters are most likely to indicate a ‘lack of interest in politics’ and ‘politicians not delivering’ as specific barriers to voting.
While a plurality of youth voters say they will vote for Democrats in the next election, roughly a third say they are undecided or won’t vote.
Financial relief remains a top issue priority and youth voters emphasize honesty, trust, care, and fight as the top desired attributes they want candidates to have this November.
Research Goals & Design
From August to September 2022, Avalanche fielded research that included a deep listening instrument to a sample of over 4,000 registered youth voters in key states between the ages of 18-30 in partnership with Rise. The research sought to uncover the barriers to voting and messaging that would activate and mobilize this key demographic, as well as understand to what extent younger voters think candidates care about them and what attributes set good candidates apart from others.
Methodology
An Avalanche Listening Survey combines open and closed-ended questions. Open-ended questions provide rich data sets that allow us to analyze beliefs, values, and emotions related to an issue. Closed-ended questions provide clarity and comparability with existing research. We work with industry-leading data collection partners to gather targeted samples of respondents.
Understanding key segments of the youth vote
Across key states, a plurality of youth voters are Biden voters; they are nearly evenly split between Strong Biden and Soft Biden. Over a third did not vote in 2020.
[2020 Vote Choice] Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election? (Closed)
[Strong / Soft Support] Did you strongly support [Joe Biden / Donald Trump] or have mixed feelings about supporting him? (Closed)
Across the full sample, voters were nearly split regarding whether they voted in support of their candidate or against the other candidate in 2020. However, a segment of Biden voters voted mostly in opposition.
When thinking about their identity, they are relatively more likely to cite personal qualities like honesty and integrity, class, and race/culture.
37%
of all voters indicated they voted mostly in opposition to the other candidate.
70%
of Soft Biden voters indicated they voted mostly in opposition to the other candidate.
Among youth voters, there is a gap between perceived ease of voting and self report knowledge about the upcoming elections.
The majority of youth voters say that voting is somewhat or very easy, but 53% of youth voters either incorrectly identify the next Congressional elections or don’t know when they are.
Perceptions of voting difficulty and motivation
40% of youth voters cite barriers as process & logistics. Soft Biden and Nonvoters also mention confidence/pressure; Nonvoters cite candidates.
However, when asked about specific barriers, youth voters are most likely to select ‘lack of interest in politics’ and ‘politicians not delivering’.
[Voting Difficult] Thinking about your experience, what are the specific things that make voting the most difficult? (Open)
A plurality of youth voters say they will vote for Democrats in the next election, but roughly a third say they are undecided or won’t vote.
Youth Soft Biden voters are much less likely (25%) than Strong Biden (56%) to say they are very motivated to vote in the elections this November.
Nonvoters are divided, and nearly half say they are not motivated.
[2022 Vote Motivation] How motivated do you currently feel to vote in the elections this November? (Closed)
While most will vote Democrat, roughly a quarter of Soft Biden voters are either undecided, wouldn’t vote, or say they would vote GOP if the election were held today.
[2022 Vote Choice] If the elections this November were held today, who would you vote for? (Closed)
Most youth voters support student loan cancellation overall
Unaided, student loan forgiveness is top of mind among Soft Biden voters when thinking about what Biden has recently done to benefit people. Few voters explicitly cite climate (or the Inflation Reduct Act).
[Biden Benefit] What, if anything, has Joe Biden recently done that you think is of benefit to people in the country? (Open)
In their own words - Student debt forgiveness (27%)
His commitment to federal student loan debt forgiveness is easily one of the best things he has done very recently to benefit the people in this country.
- 30, NH white, Male, Strong Biden
He's pushing to forgive student loan debt, and we really need that painfully.
- 18-29, Black, Female, Strong Biden
I'm not sure he's done much of anything; the student loan pauses and forgiveness has helped me tremendously.
- 18-29, NH white, Female, Strong Trump
The idea of helping with student loans is nice and could help a lot of people even though I don't have any. Gas prices are returning to normal as well.
- 18-29, NH White, Female, Soft Biden
Some student loan debt relief will help but still need to address inflation and cost of living expenses.
- 30, NH white, Female, Soft Biden
He is helping pass something that helps people with student loans get some of their loans paid off. This will help with people who want to buy houses,cars, etc, but are told they cannot because they have outstanding student loans that they are working their tails off to try and pay off.
- 18-29, NH White, Female, Nonvoter
Framing the choice in this election
We tested six messages and asked respondents to indicate which made the best arguments for voting for each party.
Acknowledge limit + Fair & just
Voting in this election isn’t going to solve all of our problems, but if we are going to have any chance at making our country more fair and just for everyone — regardless of class, race, or background — we have to vote better leaders into office.
Voting + Democracy
Our freedoms in this country come from us choosing leaders who represent us and voting out those that don’t. At a time when so many leaders are willing to ignore our voices, we have to vote for leaders who will protect our voting rights and strengthen our democracy.
Cost of living + Help people thrive
We need leaders who are working to reduce the cost of living and address inflation. Voting for leaders who will reduce student loans, increase affordable housing, and create good paying jobs will help people thrive.
Protect abortion rights
We need leaders who are working to protect abortion rights. Voting for leaders who will protect our rights is the only way to expand abortion rights in states where it is banned.
Economy for us + Big corporations
We need leaders who are helping to build an economy that works for us, not the other way around. Too many leaders only help big corporations get tax breaks. We have to vote for leaders who help hardworking people achieve their goals.
Care + Progress on shared values
Voting is the only way to ensure our leaders care enough about people to keep fighting for progress on our shared values and the things that really matter like building a country that works for all people.
Soft Biden voters select ‘Acknowledge + Fair & just’ as the best case for voting followed closely by ‘Cost of living’ and ‘Economy for us + not big corporations’.
[Arguments for voting] Regardless of who you plan to vote for personally, which do you think makes the best case for why you should vote in the elections this November?
‘Acknowledge + Fair & just’ and ‘Protect abortion rights’ offer the greatest points of contrast on credibility from Democrats vs. the GOP.
[Argument credibility] How believable is this argument coming from [Democratic/Republican] candidates?
Priorities and desired attributes for electeds
In the past year, youth voters overall are most likely to say elected officials haven’t improved their lives. However, unaided, at least a quarter cite some form of financial relief, including student loans.
Looking ahead, youth voters want to see reduced cost of living and financial relief. 14% of Soft Biden and 11% of Nonvoters cite protecting reproductive freedom.
When asked what specifically is the most important characteristic or quality for a candidate to have in order to get their vote in the upcoming election, honesty, care, and fight lead as desired attributes. Soft Biden voters are among those most likely to cite each of these relative to others.
[Elected Priorities Next Year] What is the most important thing elected officials could do to improve your life within the next year? (Open)
[Attributes] What specifically do you think is the most important characteristic or quality for a candidate to have in order to get your vote in the elections this November? (Open)
In their own words
Reasons why 32% cite Honest, Trust, Care, or Compassion
I am voting for specific beliefs that people have and share with me. If I can trust that they'll do what they say they'll do then I will feel confident in my vote.
- 18-29, NH white, Female, Soft Trump
The entire concept of having a representative of the people who lacks integrity and honor fails if they cannot be relied on to do what they were elected to do, use their office to pursue their own interests, or otherwise demonstrate a serious moral failing.
- 18-29, NH white, Female, Strong Biden
I don't want to live in poverty. I didn't ask to be born in a broken home, but if we have the right leaders we can come out of poverty and maybe one day be like the president.
- 18-29, Black, Female, Strong Biden
Compassion is absolutely necessary for someone to create equity or provide aid to those that need it. Without it, those would not be priorities, if even considered.
- 18-29, NH White, Non-binary, Soft Biden
We need a candidate who is honest about what he can and will do for us and our families.
-18-29, Black, Male, Strong Trump
American leaders of late have been shadows of our former leaders and even they weren't great, we need someone who is going to put America first not businesses and corporations and the already rich and someone who's going to work towards the future that we deserve.
- 18-29, White, Male, Soft Biden
Key Takeaways
1
Youth voters display a notable degree of dissonance between their voting perceptions and behavior. However, they consistently express a lack of inspiration from politics / politicians.
Most youth voters say voting is easy but many cannot correctly identify the next election.
Most also say their vote can make a difference locally or at the state level but turnout is low for down ballot races.
2
When asked to choose between barriers to voting, youth voters select a lack of interest in politics and politicians not delivering most frequently.
Unaided Soft Biden and Nonvoters are most likely to cite process & logistics as things that make voting difficult. However, these segments also cite a lack of confidence/knowledge and a lack of likeable candidates as barriers.
3
Many cite student loan debt cancellation as a beneficial action by the Biden administration.
Motivation to vote in 2022 remains lukewarm.
When asked unaided to describe a recent beneficial action by Biden, over a quarter of youth voters and nearly half of Soft Biden explicitly cite student loan debt cancellation (more than ‘nothing’ at 22%).
4
The best cases for voting are:
1) Acknowledging that voting won’t fix everything but we can make our country more fair & just and
2) reducing the cost of living.
Among those who select ‘Acknowledge limits + Fair & just’, ‘Voting + Democracy’ is the second best case. This indicates that while cost of living remains a central issue, youth voters recognize the stakes in this moment have to do with fairness and rights.
5
Financial relief is the top priority youth voters want elected officials to focus. The top desired attributes in candidates are honesty, trust, care, and willingness to take action & fight.
IIn additoin to financial well-being, Soft Biden and Nonvoters want leaders to protect abortion rights. When asked about desired attributes in candidates, Soft Biden in particular emphasize honesty, trust, care, and fight while citing issues like abortion and the climate.
Strategic Recommendations
1
Focus on what we must keep fighting for. Be race/class forward. And lead with the values of fairness, honesty, and care.
Youth voters lack interest in uninspiring or clearly partisan candidates. They express a desire for candidates who will be honest, show that they care, and take action for a country that is fair and just for all.
Honesty = Get real and don’t bullshit us about progress.
Care = Give a shit and show that you’re working to help people.
Take action = Show us you will fight.
2
Get real. Start by acknowledging that elections don’t fix everything. But we have to keep fighting.
Use student loan debt cancellation & climate action as proof points.
Demonstrate the impact of voting by using wins on student loan debt cancellation and climate (which has not yet broken through) to activate voters.
The same can happen if we fight to protect abortion rights. And this is the choice.
3
Speak to lived experience and “rising costs of living” and make youth voters the protagonists and heroes of the story.
Cost of living is the #1 concern for youth voters. While student loan debt cancellation helps, youth voters express concerns about prices and the ability to make ends meet.
We need our leaders to reduce costs, create better paying jobs, and protect workers, so we will show up to vote those leaders in.
Remind voters that Republicans don’t care about them, and are more focused on keeping big corporations profitable.
4
Take voters on a journey from disillusionment to determination.
Youth voters don’t see inspiring candidates, and have less faith that our political system works.
They’re slogging through a tough couple of years, and the only positive impact they can name since Dems took office is student debt cancellation.
To be effective, we need to evoke determination and agency. Tell stories of how generations before us have overcome the great challenges. So can we. It’s our time.
We help organizations tell stories that resonate, mobilize, and win.
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