Warren Closing the
Electability Gap
Democratic voters hold a deep belief in persistent, systemic inequality in America. This contributes to the opinion that Americans will not elect a woman President.
Despite these sentiments, more voters are now confident that Warren can overcome these challenges.
Research Goals
Between Oct 1- Oct 4, 2019 we fielded a listening survey to 1,041 registered Democratic voters. Our goal was to understand how the concept of electability is influencing the beliefs and behavior of likely Democratic primary voters. This research builds on previously released electability research, published in June 2019.
Methodology
An Avalanche Listening Survey combines open- and closed-end questions. Open-ended questions provide rich data sets that allow us to analyze beliefs, values, and emotions related to an issue. Closed-end questions provide clarity and comparability with existing research. We work with data collection partners to gather targeted representative sample respondents.
Key insights
70%
of respondents reference persistent and increasing systemic inequality in America
53%
of likely Democratic primary voters believe it is "Harder" or "Much Harder" for a female candidate to defeat Trump
3%
Warren’s supporters are 3% more likely than the average among Democratic primary voters to believe being a woman makes it harder to win
Warren has made gains despite many likely voters believing gender has a negative impact on electability.
Between June 2019 and October 2019, Warren climbed 13 points in a traditional "horse race" and 11 points when voters have a magic wand to make someone President—making significant gains on vote choice and nearly closing the electability gap.
Warren leads as the preferred President whether factoring in electability or not.
Rather than directly asking voters about the elusive topic of electability, we isolate the effect of electability on vote choice. First, respondents answer a typical “horse race” question about who they would support if the primary election were today. Later, we ask respondents which candidate they would choose if they had a magic wand — they wouldn't have to beat anyone or win the election.
Warren is now the top candidate, but Joe Biden continues to benefit most from perceived electability.
Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris have experienced a widening of their electability gap.
Support for Bernie Sanders overall has decreased with a steady 1 point electability gap.
Warren leads in both the traditional horse race question (29%) and as the preferred President when electability is factored out (32%).
Very few likely Democratic voters believe a candidate's gender impacts their own choice, but they do think others are less likely to vote for a woman.
Following the findings of our previous research into gender and electability, we dove deeper in this research. This time we evaluated how voters perceive gender impacting their own vote, the votes of others, and the election overall.
2%
Only 2% of likely Democratic primary voters report believing that they are less likely to vote for a candidate because the candidate is a woman
47%
47% report believing that it is less likely or much less likely that others will vote for a female candidate
53%
cite believing it is "Harder" or "Much Harder" for a female candidate to defeat Trump
Voters who select a man for the horse race but shift to a female candidate when given a magic wand are even more likely to believe that gender impacts electability.
78%
report believing it is "Harder" or "Much Harder" for a female candidate to defeat Trump
62%
report believing that others are much less or less likely to vote for a female candidate
Voters who believe that others are less likely to vote for a female candidate share a belief in persistent, and even increasing, systemic inequality in America.
70%
of respondents reference persistent and increasing systemic inequality in America
22%
Of those, 22% blame Trump specifically, and 34% reference enduring sexism
Warren is closing the electability gap because voters think she can overcome these challenges and become the best candidate to defeat Trump.
While we might expect to find a different story among Warren’s supporters, the opposite proves to be true.
Warren’s supporters are 3% more likely than the average among Democratic primary voters to believe being a woman makes it harder to win.
They are also slightly more likely to cite systemic inequality, sexism and Trump to explain the electability gap.
Above all, the belief that women are harder to elect is most closely tied to how voters perceive their fellow citizens. The gender electability gap is far less about the candidate specifically than it is about confidence in fellow Americans.
The key challenge for female candidates is less about proving their own capability.
It is more necessary to inspire Americans to believe that they are capable of electing the candidate they most want to be President.
“I’m a white male living in Oklahoma, disabled veteran worked construction all my life. Even I can clearly see that it is not an even playing field for women in politics or the workforce.”
— 61, Male, Oklahoma
“We sat here and saw a qualified candidate lose to a cheating liar, because people said America isn’t ready for a woman in office.”
— 55, Female, Washington
“America proved in 2016 that it is far more misogynist than racist. And we all know it’s racist.”
— 28, Female, Iowa
“I never realized until Trump showed the true America. There’s much more racism and chauvinism than I ever realized.”
— 48, Female, Indiana
“Trump has made it ok to be openly misogynistic and bigoted and racist.”
— 29, Female, Pennsylvania
“Old white guys still hold most of the power in this country and don’t like the thought of losing it.”
— 56, Male, Montana