Beliefs About Gender in America Drive Perceived Electability
While traditional research has struggled to define and measure electability, we are able to provide unique insight into this complex concept.
When it comes to perceived electability, the greatest messaging challenge for the campaigns of female candidates may be less about the story of their candidate and more about the story of America today.
Research Goals
Between May 30-June 3 2019, we conducted a deep qualitative listening survey with 1,871 registered voters. Our goal was to understand how the concept of electability influences the beliefs and behavior of voters in America—especially through the lens of gender.
Methodology
An Avalanche Listening Survey combines open- and closed-end questions. Open-ended questions provide rich data sets that allow us to analyze beliefs, values, and emotions related to an issue. Closed-end questions provide clarity and comparability with existing research. We work with data collection partners to gather targeted representative sample respondents.
Key Insights
97%
of likely Democratic voters believe beating Trump is very or extremely important
19%
of voters who prefer a female candidate believe that gender is a primary barrier to electability
28%
Only 28% are certain that Democrats will win
62%
Among those who raise gender as an issue, 62% express beliefs that American voters will not elect a woman
This study sheds light on the impact of perceived electability by observing voters' preferred candidates when taking electability into consideration, versus those they favor when electability is taken off the table.
When perceived electability is removed from consideration, the Democratic primary race tightens significantly.
Gender appears to have a greater effect on perceived electability than age, race, ideology, or sexual orientation.
This data suggests that at the time of the survey, voters' preferred candidate is a woman — when electability is not a consideration.
Concerns are not about the capability of female candidates, but rather the willingness of Americans to elect a woman.
Democrats are experiencing a mix of extreme urgency, relatively low confidence and a mix of unsettled emotions about the 2020 election.
27%
of respondents from both parties feel Determination.
42%
of likely Democratic voters feel negative emotions including Frustration, Anger, Doubt, Hopelessness, Overwhelm, or Sadness.
21%
of likely Democratic voters feel Hope.
Likely Republican voters feel relatively more Excitement (19%), Pride (8%), Happiness (4%), and No Strong Feelings (8%) about the 2020 election.
Many likely Democratic voters prioritize winning above issue positions.
38%
of likely Democratic voters say they would prefer a Democratic candidate that is likely to win, even if they do not agree with them on most issues, compared to just 7% of Republicans
63%
This climbs to 63% for likely Democratic primary voters when the question is focused on beating Trump specifically
To provide evidence of the impact of electability, we first observed which candidates voters favor when considering electability.
To understand the attributes contributing to perceived electability, we asked respondents to tell us what their “magic wand” candidate could change to be more likely to win.
We then compare that to the candidates they favor when electability is taken off the table.
Comparing who respondents would vote for today with who they would “magically” make president reveals the impact of electability concerns for each candidate.
We looked for mentions of qualities considered to drive electability including ideology, age, race, sexual orientation, and gender.
5% of supporters of candidates over 65 mention age, suggesting it is not explicitly a primary concern.
8% of supporters of more progressive candidates and 4% of supporters of more moderate candidates mention ideology.
9% of supporters of Buttigieg mention sexual orientation.
7% of supporters of any candidate mention race, showing that voters perceive challenges on both sides of this issue.
24% of respondents who chose a male candidate in the horse race but a female “magic wand” President mention gender. This suggests a heightened concern with gender among these vote switchers.
When it comes to electability, gender plays a unique role.
19% of the respondents who choose to make a female candidate president given a “magic wand” explicitly reference gender as a perceived electability issue.
69% of the respondents who mention gender are female.
27% of respondents who choose one of the female candidates to be President given a “magic wand,” use gendered language to describe other attributes like strength and likability.
58% of respondents, when given a magic wand, choose a male candidate to be President and Elizabeth Warren emerges as the preference by a 2% margin.
62% of voters who mention gender explicitly assert a belief that American voters are not capable of electing a woman.
Voters doubt the ability of American voters to elect a woman, not the capabilities of the candidate.
“I don’t know, I don’t think men will vote for her or any woman.”
— 75, Female, North Carolina
“I’m not sure a woman can beat Trump. Honestly the misogyny and racism in this country right now is heartbreaking. I hope one day she’s president though. She is amazing.”
— 39, Female, Kentucky
“She needs to change that she’s a woman, because America can’t accept truth from a woman when the lies of men are so much more soothing.”
— 49, Male, Washington
“She’s a woman, so the media will never give her equal time or focus on her plans. They will distort her life, her work, her looks, her ambition, her voice, her passion.”
— 39, Female, Texas